DOI: 10.2478/cjf-2026-0004
Review article
Contributing to Unveiling the Influence of Common Fisheries Policy Reforms on Species-Specific Landings in Portugal over 30 Years
2026, 84 (1) p. 39-55
Abstract
This study quantitatively investigates the impact of successive Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) reforms on fish landings in mainland Portugal between 1995 and 2024. The CFP, the cornerstone of the European Union's marine fisheries management, has undergone pivotal revisions in 1992, 2002, and 2013. Our analysis also considers the 2021 reform, which aligns with the European Green Deal's objectives for sustainable aquatic and maritime resource management.
We utilized Spearman rank correlation analyses on national landing data, disaggregated by 47 species, to assess monotonic trends. This methodology allows for the evaluation of structural changes in time series and considers CFP reforms as external interventions, while being robust to non-normality and outliers in species-level data.
The species-level Spearman correlation analysis provided crucial insights into the structural transformation of Portugal's marine fisheries. A statistically significant negative correlation was observed for the majority of species analyzed (34 species, p < 0.05), indicating a pervasive declining trend in their landing volumes. This widespread decline is interpreted as aligning with policy-induced reductions in fishing effort and resource pressures. Conversely, a few notable exceptions, such as Atlantic Mackerel (ρ = +0.778) and European Sea Bass (ρ = +0.762), exhibited strong positive trends, potentially reflecting stock recovery or shifts in fishing effort and market demand.
These results collectively suggest a strong association between regulatory interventions and the structural transformation of Portugal's marine fisheries, supporting the effectiveness of CFP policy interventions in altering fishing behavior and outcomes at a species level, even if aggregate effects were less pronounced. The findings underscore the importance of adaptive, evidence-based policy design in sustaining marine resources, while also highlighting the complex interplay of policy effects with external factors like climate change and IUU fishing, and the significant socio-economic impacts on coastal communities, particularly small-scale fleets. Future reforms must address both ecological targets and regional disparities to ensure the long-term viability of the entire fisheries sector.
Keywords
Common Fisheries Policy (CFP), Fisheries Management, Correlation Analysis, Portugal
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